Demographics throughout the world are pointing to a global pensions crisis both in the public and private sectors. Mortality improvements, especially at older ages, make it ever more likely that individuals with inadequate pension arrangements will end their lives with insufficient income and, in some cases, in poverty.
For some private corporations operating defined benefit pensions schemes in which the amount of pension is determined by, for example, the length of service and the salary of an employee, the total size of the obligations on a pension scheme sponsored by the employer has grown due to improvements in mortality. In many cases this has been to an extent that it has become a significant burden on the corporation's finances and operations and many schemes are operating at a significant deficit.
Concerns to ensure that companies are properly equipped to meet their pension obligations have seen the introduction over about the last five years of a combination of both accounting and regulatory reforms, which have in themselves added to the pensions burden on corporate sponsors of defined benefit pension schemes.
Recently adopted international and domestic accounting standards, such as FRS 17, IAS 19 and FAS 87, now require many companies to reflect their pensions deficits on their balance sheets as obligations to third parties. Under these accounting standards, pensions liabilities are required to be valued by discounting obligations to pensioners on the basis of long term bond yields, while the assets supporting the scheme, which typically comprise a variety of asset classes in addition to bonds, such as equities and property, are simply recorded at market value. The result is that there is usually an imbalance between the valuation of the assets and liabilities of a scheme, which can lead to unwelcome volatility in the size of the surplus/deficit. This surplus/deficit volatility will ultimately be reflected in the company's balance sheet, with the expectation that accounting standards will eventually require this volatility to be included in the profit and loss statement with a potentially significant impact on earnings.
Further, to date, the development of systems in the pensions sector has been driven by the needs of actuaries and pension consultants, with a focus on the management and reporting requirements of insurance companies and pension trustees. At the pensions scheme level, the standards of record keeping and risk management are generally not of a high standard. At the insurance level, the focus has tended to be on cash flow projection and pricing. By capital markets standards, the world of pension risk management and reporting has mostly been unsophisticated.
An illustration of the problem is that despite the introduction of the accounting standard FRS 17, which requires companies to value their pensions liability on the basis of long term corporate bond yields, it remains the custom to only revalue the liability every three years. Further obfuscation of the true extent of corporate pensions liability is provided by the fact that sponsors have not been required to disclose their mortality assumptions. This means that despite the move by the accounting profession to make companies accurately reflect their pension liabilities in their financial accounts, the reality is that the measurement has only updated at intervals such as every three years and is then based on discretionary mortality criteria.
Further, recent legislation in some jurisdictions such as the United States and the United Kingdom requires corporate sponsors to demonstrate that where a deficit exists, they will be able to fully fund the deficit within a fixed period. For example, under current legislation in those territories the periods have been set at seven and ten years respectively. In view of this, in the UK a Pensions Regulator has been established with powers to intervene in corporate affairs, including the ability to divert dividends or other distributions away from shareholders to the fund the pension deficit.
Additionally, through quasi government agencies such as the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation in the USA and the Pension Protection Fund in the UK governments are being forced to become the underwriters of last resort of risk of sponsor failure. As a result, in turn these agencies are now imposing annual levies on the corporate sponsors.
In view of the inadequacies in the frequency and quality of current pensions reporting, it is difficult for regulatory bodies and governmental protection funds to gather accurate or timely information to enable a meaningful assessment of the ultimate exposure of pension schemes.
Pension fund problems could clearly cause underperformance on the part of sponsor companies, which could create issues for existing shareholders and potential investors.
Against this increasingly burdensome background, companies are realizing that the promises made to their pensioners are exposing their businesses to additional and sometimes highly volatile risks, such as inflation, exposure to the interest, currency, credit, equity and property markets, as well as longevity.
In view of the burden of these risks and exposures on the corporate sponsors of defined benefit pension schemes, the management of such companies may choose to close existing schemes to new members, or to reduce benefits and increase the retirement age, or to migrate away from defined benefit pension schemes towards defined contribution schemes which may not be an attractive alternative for its employees. This unnecessarily limits the corporate sponsor as to what is in the best interests of its particular employees and business imperatives. However, none of these strategies in themselves will deal with the fundamental problem of the exposure of the corporate sponsor to the volatility of the deficit, or indeed a surplus which has been the case at various times. Closing the scheme is an inflexible and final solution which does not permit the sponsor to claw back a growing surplus, should market conditions become favorable after closure.
Another option is to abandon the sponsorship of the corporate pension schemes altogether by transferring the scheme, for example, to an independently managed collector fund. Such an approach removes the burden of the deficit/surplus volatility, but is strongly discouraged by the pensions regulator.
Current options taken by companies often have human resource implications, with dissatisfaction amongst the workforce and in some cases industrial action as a way of expressing objections to proposed changes to a company's pension arrangements.
Currently, one source of underwriting capacity for the risk of longevity is the insurance sector, through the issuance of bulk annuity policies by a multi-line insurer, or a new breed monoline pension “buy-out” company and in turn the re-insurance market. This bulk annuity provides a full legal and economic transfer of the pension scheme's risk by transferring to the insurer all risks and future liabilities of a pension scheme in return for a priced premium and winding-up the scheme. While offering a partial solution, the capacity of the global insurance market to assume the risks associated with longevity is extremely limited in scale when set against the size of the global pensions market, making this an unscaleable solution. There are currently severe limits on the capacity of the insurance sector to supplement its existing capacity due to the high cost of capital for participating insurers. The high cost of capital arises because participating insurers are required to maintain high levels of regulatory capital largely in the form of expensive equity capital. This makes a buy-out of a pension scheme and replacement with a bulk annuity a very expensive and inefficient solution.
A further constraint of the annuity market is that it offers a product best suited to defeasance and closure of pension funds, rather than a source of risk transfer for existing ongoing pension schemes. The reason for this is that pension schemes are not allowed to give preference to specific scheme members and so bulk annuity is primarily used to defease the obligations of an entire scheme.
As an alternative to a full buy-out of a pension scheme, some insurance companies are offering to take on schemes' liabilities in a phased approach as a partial defeasance of the longevity and other risks. The aim is that benefits are insured gradually over time allowing the cost to be spread and the scheme risks to be managed towards buyout. Some market entrants are using this to target small to medium sized companies and schemes that may not have the available capital for a full buyout.
Another option available to trustees and sponsors of defined benefit corporate pension schemes is a range of products called pensions risk insurance. These insure certain risk experience within predetermined bands over a stated period of time, which may for example be the funding recovery period for the pension scheme. For example, this may be to underwrite mortality and investment experience up to a stated level over the recovery period.
Ultimately all of these products are categorized as an investment in an insurance contract. While through a variety of derivatives of the basic bulk annuity product, it is technically possible for a pension scheme to ‘invest’ in insurance products as a general asset of the scheme, rather than member specific policies, there are significant legal and security implications in doing so, as an insurance policy, unlike a bond, is not an unconditional promise to pay, but rather a contingent contract, subject to there being no available defenses. For this reason, insurance derived products, such as bulk annuity are not considered suitable investments by many pension trustees and their advisors.
The present inventors have appreciated that investment in bonds, or interest rate and inflation derivatives can offer a solution to hedge against the exposure of a pension scheme to equity risk, interest rate risk and inflation risk, and would immunize the scheme's liabilities from ballooning as a result of further falls in bond yields. However, it has also been appreciated that in many cases this solution would be incomplete as the pension scheme would remain exposed to longevity risk, i.e. the risk that a scheme's pensioners will live much longer than anticipated.
A preferred approach would be to hedge the pension schemes against all of their underlying exposures, including longevity, in order to immunize them against risk. This longevity risk has thus far been unmanageable and the present inventors have developed systems for transferring this longevity risk, as well as the other risk exposures and volatilities, away from corporate sponsors and managers of pension liabilities.
The possibility of creating financial instruments which can hedge the specific economic risk of increasing longevity has been proposed previously. There have been proposals to develop and introduce products in the form of longevity bonds and longevity derivatives which purport to immunize against longevity risk. Mortality bonds, hedging the inversely correlated mortality risk borne by insurers in their life insurance business, i.e. early death, have also been issued.
A longevity bond was announced in November 2004 by BNP Paribas on behalf of the European Investment Bank (EIB). This was proposed as a solution for financial institutions looking to hedge their long-term longevity risks. The bond issue was for £540 million, and was primarily aimed at UK pension funds. The bond was due to pay a coupon that would be proportional to the number of survivors in the cohort of individuals turning sixty-five in the year that the bond was issued, so that the coupon in each successive year would be proportional to the number in the cohort that survived each year. Since this payoff would in part match the liability of a pension, the bonds would create an effective hedge against longevity risk.
However, a number of problems with the EIB longevity bond meant that it did not generate sufficient interest to be launched, and was withdrawn for potential redesign.
The present inventors have appreciated that a significant inadequacy of the EIB bond or any similar proposals for use in the pensions sector, would have been that the mortality of a reference population was used to determine the payment of the bond coupon. This means that a basis risk faced by any individual pension plan, namely the mortality circumstances experienced by that particular pension plan, would not be covered, thus not making the bond an effective hedge against an individual pension scheme's longevity risk.
The present inventors have thus appreciated if longevity bonds or derivatives are to be of use in the pensions sector, they will have to provide a much more complete hedge for the mortality risks actually borne by each individual pension scheme, or at the very least need to be indexed to the mortality experiences of a much greater range of cohorts.
Longevity indices have been proposed, for example by Credit Suisse in 2006 by BNP Paribas and most recently by JP Morgan, which introduced an index under the brand name Lifemetrics, with an aim of creating benchmark values for underlying mortality rates or cumulative survival rates. However, the creation of indices does not move the market any further forward in terms of identifying new capital willing to take on the risk of longevity, and without this capacity a longevity derivatives market is unlikely to take off.
The inventors have identified that a key factor in the growth of the longevity securitization market is the development of longevity bonds and longevity derivatives capable of hedging the entire economic risk of an individual pension scheme (i.e. the element of exposure which is left if an investment or hedging instrument does not exactly mirror the longevity profile of the pension scheme). The inventors have realized that such products would provide buyers and counterparties in the form of individual pension funds and monoline buy-out specialists and multi-line insurers looking to hedge themselves and their own exposure to the longevity risk, with a complete solution to their risk transfer requirements. Also, the capital elements of such products could create sufficient value to generate buying interest from speculative investors for which exposure to longevity products would create an attractive diversification since it is uncorrelated with many of the more traditional asset classes.
In this regard the inventors have developed a capital markets methodology and system for securitizing pension liabilities, enabling the introduction of debt capital to achieve risk transfer from the pensions and insurance industries onto the capital markets. The inventors have also developed a pension risk management system to operate the methodology, which is the subject of this Continuation-in-Part application, and which includes hardware and software configured to process input data and provide a projection of pension scheme assets and liabilities, and of the risk exposure thereof. This methodology and system were first set out in detail in United States Patent Application Publication No. US-A1-2008/281742, published 13 Nov. 2008, and International Patent Application Publication No. WO2008/139150, published 20 Nov. 2008.
This capital markets methodology enables immunization of risk in the pension and insurance sector using, for example, securities and derivative products to transfer the risk associated with pension liabilities (including longevity risk) for a particular pension scheme membership over to the capital markets. The associated risk management system supports the securitization of pension liabilities, reports on the securitization of investments and ensures compliance of the securitization scheme with rating agency requirements. The risk management system also provides reporting tools for corporate sponsors and pension trustees to help ensure their compliance with regulatory reporting requirements.
This capital markets methodology allows the Trustees of a Pension Scheme to meet its payment obligations over the years whilst reducing the risk of going into deficit.
According to the inventor's methodology, the risk is transferred to a company which analyses the scheme and its members carefully. The company calculates nominal cash flow requirements for periods extending over a number of years. It then calculates the life expectancies of members of the pension scheme, using statistical techniques based on life expectancy data for a general population, and factors specific to the members of the scheme. Once life expectancy data has been calculated, projected actual cash flow requirements are calculated by manipulating the nominal cash flow requirements using the life expectancy data. The company, in return for funds provided by the Trustees of the pension scheme, issues a financial instrument which undertakes to pay sums equal to the projected actual cash flow requirements over the life of the arrangement.
The methodology is able to deal with unexpected changes in factors which result in increases in the cash flow requirements beyond those which have been projected. Reasons for such changes include rises in inflation/the cost of living so that indexed pensions payments increase more than expected, and changes in life expectancy. If people live for longer than estimated originally, then in any particular year, pensions must continue to be paid to more people than originally estimated.
This is achieved by providing a financial instrument by which cash flow requirements will be met despite unexpected changes in such factors by the financial instrument providing increased or decreased sums to match the increased or decreased cash flow requirements, but also protect the issuer of the financial instrument.
The system for recalculating the sums to be paid to the pension scheme to match its cash flows, is as follows. At a re-set point, revised nominal cash flows for each of the original members of the scheme are calculated taking into account the actual experience of the scheme members in all non-mortality factors affecting pension payments, such as commutations, transfers out, etc, whereas the actual mortality experience of the deaths of any pension scheme members in the preceding period are not taken into account in calculating the revised nominal cash flows. That is, if a member has died, the nominal cash flows for that member remain in the calculations. Actual mortality experience of the pension scheme membership is then taken into account by being used in conjunction with the revised nominal cash flows to calculate an adjusted cash flow for that re-set period.
If mortality experience were taken into account at an individual member level, the nominal cash flow for a deceased member would be taken out of the calculation of an adjusted cash flow for that re-set period and for the calculation of an adjusted cash flow in any subsequent re-set periods. This approach can be taken in calculating an adjusted cash flow. Instead, in some embodiments of the inventor's methodology, members are allocated into the relevant one of a number of segments, each segment representing a range of nominal pension cash flow requirements. Within each segment, the revised nominal cash flows for all of the members in that segment are summed, including those for deceased members, and average mortality rate for that segment is also calculated from the cumulative actual mortality experience of that segment. The resultant average mortality rate for each segment is used together with the sum of the revised nominal cash flows for that segment to calculate an adjusted cash flow for that segment. The adjusted segment cash flows are aggregated to give an adjusted cash flow for that re-set period which is paid to the Trustees of the pension scheme.
Of course, any party other than the trustees of the pension scheme can invest in the financial instruments of the inventor's methodology. In particular, any party having an exposure to the pension scheme and the financial risks associated therewith, including longevity risk, may choose to invest in a financial instrument provided according to the inventor's methodology. For example, an insurance company underwriting a pension scheme may choose to invest in such a financial instrument which may transfer any aspect of the risk exposure of the insurance company to the pension scheme on to the capital markets. Also, any party who considers the financial instrument to be mis-priced may choose to invest in a financial instrument according to embodiments of the present invention.
This ‘longevity’ financial instrument of the inventor's methodology is not limited to cash form including bonds, notes, paper, etc., and can be deployed in the form of a derivatives contract including swaps, options, etc.
The financial instruments can be used to hedge against the longevity risk and longevity basis risk associated with defined benefit pension schemes.
The inventors have thus provided methods and systems of securitizing the liabilities of a pension fund to immunize it against its underlying risk exposures, including longevity and longevity basis risk.
The risk management systems are arranged to manage the assets and liabilities of a defined benefit pension scheme and facilitate risk transfer to the capital markets.
This methodology can provide more accurate indications of the risks of a pension scheme, in which for example at least longevity calculations are based on factors associated with the individual members of the scheme, rather than on estimations based on a sample of the general population.
The inventors have thus developed a suite of capital markets based securities and derivatives and proprietary risk management and reporting systems, which enable multi-faceted risk transfer of longevity and other risks from the pensions and insurance sector to fixed income capital market investors.
These financial instruments can be provided as both indexed and dedicated defeasance products, which are capable of assuming the entire economic risk of a pension scheme—including longevity (including longevity basis risk), inflation, interest rate, credit and equity—by partially or completely replacing the scheme's existing assets with senior secured securities or derivatives, which are designed to match the obligation of the scheme. That is, the defeasance products are priced by analyzing the underlying pension scheme's exposures to longevity risk on a “granular” basis, i.e. on the basis of the pension scheme's members' actual characteristics, thus allowing more accurate pricing than previously.
This enables corporate sponsors of defined benefit pension schemes to immunize their obligations from the underlying exposure to risk, including longevity risk and basis risk associated with longevity.
The risk management system provides an operating platform for the securities and derivatives, and also incorporates a platform for projecting pension scheme assets and liabilities. The securities and the derivative products are capable of being rated by the world's leading debt rating agencies. The senior tranches are preferably be rated highly by an appropriate leading rating agency, for example being rated AAA or Aaa by an independent ratings agency such as Standard & Poor's or Moody's.
To support this rating of the securities and derivative products, the inventors have also provided a ratings method in which the securitization of longevity risk is measured and monitored by the risk management systems to deterministically or stochastically map the actual and projected mortality experience for the pension scheme and allocate risk capital based on a proprietary risk capital model to ensure daily compliance with a set of criteria agreed with at least one rating agency. This permits the securities ratings to be defined, monitored and maintained.
The risk management system further provides pensions reports to regulators, stakeholders, and pension scheme trustees, enabling the holistic reporting of both the investments and the pension's liabilities on a daily marked to market basis. This represents a revolution in terms of the business process compared to existing systems, enabling transparent daily reporting of a pension scheme's assets and liabilities.